Where would the most damage occur? How much economic loss would there be? How many casualties?
The
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has developed software (
HAZUS) that models earthquakes in order to estimate potential loss and damage.
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This interactive HAZUS Events Map details epicenters of possible future seismic events based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCE) that have been assigned to specific faults by various entities. Each of the event locations have been analyzed using FEMA HAZUS software and correspond to the HAZUS Reports - Statewide table below. Click on the map link or map image to view full size and select HAZUS events based on location. |
The reports in the table below analyze potential earthquakes on faults across Colorado. HAZUS software is used to analyze the MCE and magnitudes down to M5.5 on specific faults. The locations of possible future seismic events in this table correspond to the events detailed on the
HAZUS Event Map above. They show the total damage from an earthquake across county lines.
HAZUS Reports - Statewide
| Location |
Epicenter |
Magnitude |
Report |
| 1882 Rocky Mountain NP |
-105.74, 40.41 |
M6.6 |
 Download |
| Busted Boiler Fault |
-107.86, 38.24 |
M6.5 |
Download |
| Cannibal Plateau |
-107.16, 37.94 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| Chase Gulch Fault |
-105.62, 39.00 |
M6.75 |
Download |
| Cheraw Fault |
-103.42, 38.28 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| Cimarron Fault |
-107.48, 38.41 |
M6.75 |
Download |
| Mosquito Range |
-106.16, 39.38 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| N Sangre De Cristo Fault |
-105.63, 37.90 |
M7.5 |
Download |
| N Sangre de Cristo PGA map |
|
M7.5 |
Download |
| N Sawatch Range Fault |
-106.39, 39.15 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| Rampart Range Fault |
-104.92, 39.06 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| Rocky Mountain Arsenal |
-104.90, 39.90 |
M6.0 |
Download |
| Rocky Mountain Arsenal |
-104.90, 39.90 |
M6.25 |
Download |
| S Sawatch Fault |
-106.18, 38.75 |
M7.25 |
Download |
| Ute Pass Fault |
-105.00, 38.92 |
M7.0 |
Download |
| Williams Fork Mountains |
-106.15, 39.87 |
M6.75 |
Download |
The reports below have been generated for all Colorado counties using HAZUS software and specifying different earthquake magnitudes along known fault lines. The Worst-Case reports use the maximum magnitudes that can be generated along a fault of any given length, as calculated by
Wells and Coppersmith (1994). These reports inform policy makers, emergency managers and responders of the consequences of an earthquake within each county. Counties can suffer damage even if the fault is located completely outside the county. Because the scientists who generate the
National Seismic Hazards Map recognize that we don't know as much as we would like about when or where an earthquake will strike, the USGS uses a "Random Earthquake" of magnitude 7.0. Therefore, we ran a "Random Earthquake" scenario for each county with a magnitude 7.0 event essentially in the geographic center of each county.
HAZUS Reports - by County
REFERENCES:
Widmann, Beth L.and Kirkham, Robert M. and Rogers, William P. (1998), Preliminary Quaternary Fault and Fold Map and Database of Colorado; Colorado Geological Survey, Open-File Report 98-8
Colorado Geological Survey